A great deal has changed since the 1960s, including patterns of racial segregation in U.S. metropolitan neighborhoods. This study identified the most common patterns of neighborhood racial change in the metropolitan areas that comprise the four largest U.S. cities: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston. We identified common patterns of neighborhood racial change using growth mixture models, a method for identifying latent classes defined by change trajectories. We found that previous methods have led to projections that are too optimistic about the future of neighborhood racial integration because the do not look at the pace of neighborhood change. We find that many neighborhoods that are currently racially integrated are following trajectories that will lead (or have already led) to racial re-segregation. That said, we found that many suburbs were on trajectories that would lead to long-term, stable racial integration.
More information about the study can be found at: http://mikebader.net/media/neighborhoodtrajectories